Growth Will Slow Faster Than Expected

So Says the Current Data The systemic “inflation” and “labor shortage” myths persist in the financial media despite data to the contrary: Layoffs remain at recessionary levels; Wage growth is slowing, not accelerating; Bond yields are falling (where’s the inflation?); Housing and auto buying intentions are at 40 year lows. Inflation The one-year inflation expectation […]

The Implications Of Softening Economic Data

After a week of heightened financial market volatility caused by the Fed’s “Dots,” (week ended June 19), the past week was like a walk in the park with much lower market volatility and the equity markets resuming an upward bias. What we have observed, however, is that much of the newly released data, including employment, housing, […]

We Don’t Live in “Normal” Times

The equity markets are in one of those rare moods where they continue to rise no matter the news, even when there are riots in the nation’s capitol complex, and when non-farm payrolls fall -140K.  Would you say this is “normal?” Regarding inflation expectations, interest rates rose rapidly along the Treasury yield curve with the […]

The Economy: On the Other Side of the Abyss

The good news is that a vaccine is definitely coming.  But getting to herd immunity is going to take more than a quarter or two, especially given the resistance of about half of the American population to getting the vaccine, at least early on. The economy is likely to remain soft until well after the […]

Faster Growth Deceleration Prompts Increased Market Turbulence

Market volatility looks to have become the norm of late, with intraday swings of 500 points on the Dow Jones Industrials seemingly commonplace. The days of complacency and ever rising stock prices appear to be firmly in the rear-view mirror, now replaced by daily angst. And, with good reason. Markets have fully recognized that “synchronized” […]

No Recession in Sight; Just Volatility, End of Cycle Worries

As June began, market volatility re-emerged with both the stock and bond markets fluctuating wildly on a daily basis. The good news is that it looks like U.S. manufacturing got a bit stronger entering Q2, as did consumer spending. So, Q2’s U.S. GDP will be stronger than Q1’s. The May employment report, too, was stronger […]