The Fed: “We Don’t Talk About Rate Cuts – No! No! No!”

The title of this blog was inspired by Disney’s Encanto, a story about a family living in a charmed villa in the mountains of Columbia. Cracks begin to appear in the foundation of the grand villa, and it is Bruno, an ostracized family member, who holds the key to stop the foundation from crumbling. The […]

As Inflation Fades and Incoming Data Disappoint The Fed Appears Intransigent

The headline CPI reading of no price inflation (0.0%) in October surprised the financial markets (but not us). It caused a bond market rally as yields (especially on the long end) fell. Then the PPI (Producer Price Index) showed up with a negative number for October (-0.5%), and this is generally a harbinger of what […]

GDP Growth Will Slow – Likely to Turn Negative

The economic story of the week was the “hot” 4.9% GDP print. The chart shows this in relationship to the recent past, with the dotted line showing the long-run 1.8% growth rate of the economy. The 4.9% is an annualized number, so the actual growth from Q2 was just under 1.5%, and the year/tear growth […]

“Higher for Longer” Will Suffer the Same Fate as “Transitory”

As expected, the Fed “paused” at its September meetings. And while the Fed’s administered rates did not change, the markets interpreted this as a “hawkish” pause, and market rates across the spectrum rose in the aftermath of the Fed statement and the Powell press conference. The “hawkishness” can be seen in the dot-plot chart. The […]

Why the Equity Markets Are Out of Touch

    Low Date of Low   12/31/22   6/30/23 Chg fr Low to 12/31 Chg fr Low to 6/30 Chg fr 12/31 to 6/30 S&P 500 3,577.03 10/12/22 3,839.50 4,450.38 +7.34% +24.41% +15.91% Nasdaq 10,321.39 10/14/22 10,466.48 13,787.92 +1.41% +33.59% +31.73% DJIA 28,725.51 9/30/22 33,147.25 34,407.60 +15.39% +19.78% +3.80% Russell 2000 1,655.88 9/26/22 1,761.25 […]

Outlook: 2023 Recession Likely Deeper and Longer

Last year, our year-end outlook blog was titled: Outlook: 2022 Growth Will Likely Disappoint. And disappoint, it did. Real GDP was negative in Q1 and Q2, and while Q3 showed a slight bounce, through Q3, the economy’s annualized real growth was less than +0.2% (that’s not a typo). Thus, last year’s outlook headline couldn’t have […]