The Recession: It’s Here
Inflation Prognosis: Lower Equity investors just endured the worst first six months of any year since 1970. This occurred despite a “Bear Market” rally in May. For the month, the S&P 500 was down -8.4% (see last column of table) as was the Russell 2000, with the Nasdaq down -8.7% and the DJIA -6.7%. All […]
Delta-Variant, Soft Data Bode Ill for Near-Term Growth
The markets waited all week for Fed Chair Powell to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s Annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Due to the Delta-variant, like many other business meetings, this one was held virtually. There was growing market concern that Powell would turn somewhat more hawkish, especially since some Regional Fed Presidents appear to have […]
Bubble Markets Display Bizarre Behavior
Right Before They Tumble Like the Dot.Com bubble of the late ‘90s, the typical signs of an approaching bubble bust were on full display in the equity markets last week (week ending January 29th). GameStop (GME) and other failing or troubled companies (AMC, Blackberry, Nokia, Bed Bath) have become the darlings of the WallStreetBets (WSB) […]
The Economy Slows; The Real “New Normal”
The virus’ resurgence has caused more business disruptions, raising the specter of a renewed economic slowdown. Spending and income numbers have mainly been negative in Q4, and the much hoped for stimulus relief package is now stuck on the president’s desk. The Economy “Drop in Spending, Higher Claims Cloud Outlook for Growth,” WSJ, 12/24/20, A1. […]
The Economy: On the Other Side of the Abyss
The good news is that a vaccine is definitely coming. But getting to herd immunity is going to take more than a quarter or two, especially given the resistance of about half of the American population to getting the vaccine, at least early on. The economy is likely to remain soft until well after the […]
Look For The Preponderance Of The Evidence, Don’t Rely On One Factor
The headline on my LinkedIn page on Friday (October 4th) read: “Jobless rate reaches half-century low, HP plans to cut up to 9,000 jobs…” Is this good news about jobs, or bad? I’ve learned many times over the years to rely on the preponderance of the evidence, and not on any single indicator. The jobs numbers, themselves […]