A Slower Economy, Lower Inflation The Odds of a June Rate Cut Are Significant

During the last week in March, there were several significant foreclosures (hundreds of millions of dollars per property). They included properties in SanFrancisco and Mountain View, CA, a large complex in Washingdon, D.C., and a medical office building (still under construction) in the southern part of Florida.   Leveraged loan delinquencies now exceed 6% (normal is […]

Markets Pay Little Attention to Emerging Data That is, Until They Do

The S&P 500 hit an all-time high on Thursday (January 25) on the heels of an unexpectedly robust +3.3% annualized growth rate of real GDP for Q4. Market expectations had been for a +2.0% print, and even the normally optimistic Atlanta Fed GDP Now model was only calling for +2.3% The chart shows the sources […]

The U.S. is Losing the Currency War

Over the past year, the U.S. dollar has appreciated more than 18%, and in the week of August 10th, China surprised the markets by allowing its currency to depreciate nearly 3% against the dollar, thoroughly roiling the equity markets. The Peoples Bank of China (PBOC) had typically pegged the value of the Chinese currency (RMB) […]