Economic predictions for 2016
As the year ends, it is customary to write a column that attempts to forecast the major economic trends of the new year. Looking back, five of my six predictions last December were spot on (only missed the continuing weakness in manufacturing). I hope the forecasts that follow do as well. Jobs, jobs, jobs Jobs […]
June’s economic backdrop
June’s economic backdrop From the emerging data, it would appear that my analysis of the economy’s underlying strength, as published in this column, was spot on. The First Quarter •I remarked several times over the past few months that the seasonal adjustment process (SA) used by the Bureau of Economic Analysis is often unreliable and […]
Weather or not, economy still improving
Originally published in the Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/02/20/weather-economy-still-improving/23742909/ In my last column, I talked about the negative media spin on January’s data, perhaps contributing to January’s equity market decline. In February, despite the fact that the equity markets have moved to new records, negative spin continues. I continue to see hand wringing over some […]
More on Market Volatility
Despite the fact that the U.S. economy appears to be on solid ground, the equity markets appear confused and uncertain, and have exhibited volatility, including huge intraday point swings. In what follows, I will examine the sources of the uncertainty and try to shed light on whether or not to worry. 1. Global Economic […]
Why “Average” Wage Rates May Be Misleading
Much has been made of Fed Chair Janet Yellen’s stance that the labor market still has a lot of slack. That message remained in the Fed’s September communique. As part of her justification, the Chairwoman points to the fact that the average hourly wage rate has remained at or near the “official” rate of inflation, […]
Closer Look at Tesla Motors’ Deal With Nevada
Originally published on KTVN Channel 2 News Robert Barone interviewed with KTVN regarding Tesla Motors deal with Nevada and the economic impact Tesla will have in our state. KTVN Channel 2 News – Closer Look at Tesla Motors Deal with Nevada