Economic Overview

Nearly all of the indicators for the U.S. are green (see table) The U.S. Labor Market Except for the Fed, which looks like it can’t tell the difference between structural and cyclical, the labor market looks strong The U3 unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in September, the lowest it has been since July ’08. Job […]

Closer Look at Tesla Motors’ Deal With Nevada

Originally published on KTVN Channel 2 News Robert Barone interviewed with KTVN regarding Tesla Motors deal with Nevada and the economic impact Tesla will have in our state. KTVN Channel 2 News – Closer Look at Tesla Motors Deal with Nevada

Bonds Got It Way Wrong, Economy Is Accelerating

First published at In the financial marketplace, the bond market usually signals first and reflects the magnitude of a changing economic environment. The equity market, on the other hand, is often late, or at least later than the bond market in recognizing oncoming changes in economic conditions. So, the worries now rampant on […]

Awash in Liquidity, Part I: Why Interest Rates Are Falling

First published at And why, in the short-term, increased market volatility will result. Despite a generally stronger economic outlook for the US economy, interest rates in May moved significantly lower, as if expectations were for an oncoming recession.  This has confounded many macroeconomists.  In this first installment of a two-part series, I will […]

Ignore the Media’s Negative Take on Jobs: The Economy is Strong

Over the last couple of months, I have indicated that, because the seasonal adjustment process cannot handle significant weather deviation issues, the first quarter reported data (.1% Real GDP, for example) significantly understate the underlying strength of the economy.  Friday’s Establishment Survey (ES) employment report gave credence to that view.  Not only did April’s newly […]

If You Build It, They Won’t Come: Opinion

It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent, but the one most responsive to change.– Charles Darwin I am often asked: “When do you think the economy will return to normal?” My response: If by “normal” you mean what we had from the 1980s to 2008 — the “if […]