Despite Fed Hawkishness  Recent Inflation Data Give Markets Hope

The financial markets were “mixed” this week (ended June 14) with the tech sectors moving smartly ahead while the more traditional sectors lagged. The S&P 500 (+1.6%) and the Nasdaq (+3.0%) both closed higher. But the industrial stocks were flat to down as represented by the Dow Jones Industrials which were off -0.8% for the […]

Non-Farm Payrolls Mislead

The Labor Market is Weakening; Inflation is Falling The big economic news of the week was the +272K rise in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)(released on Friday, June 7). Expectations were for a number in the +180K range, so, a pretty big beat. Another data point upsetting markets (and likely the Fed) was the hottish average hourly […]

Don’t be Fooled – The Macro-Economic Picture is Deteriorating

Once again, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) number, at +275K, was well above the consensus +200K estimate. But, that’s where the good news ended. The sister survey, the Household Survey (HS), reported a fall in the number of jobs of -184K. The HS is used to calculate the Unemployment Rate. Since the labor force did not […]

CPI Will Set the Tone for Financial Markets

It was a light week for economic data, giving markets time to digest and analyze the prior week’s Fed meeting and the unexpected jobs numbers. By Friday (February 10), with the Fed’s unanimous FOMC view that the future held interest rate increases (plural) and reinforced by the spectacular +517,000 jobs numbers, the markets threw in […]

Labor Market/Economy Weaker than Headline Jobs Number Suggests

The big story of the first week of the new year was always going to be about the December jobs number. The Wall Street consensus was +203K for Non-Farm Payrolls, but the headline number, at +223K, handily beat that consensus. As a result, the “soft-landing” narrative is back on the table. The cherry on top […]

Upon Further Review: That “Hot” Labor Market Is Really “Ice Cold”

There are two surveys put out every month: The Payroll or Establishment Survey, which is the one that gets the headlines, and the Household Survey. The Payroll Survey only surveys large and medium-sized businesses and counts the number of jobs. The Household Survey calls on households and only asks if people in the household are […]