Look For The Preponderance Of The Evidence, Don’t Rely On One Factor
The headline on my LinkedIn page on Friday (October 4th) read: “Jobless rate reaches half-century low, HP plans to cut up to 9,000 jobs…” Is this good news about jobs, or bad? I’ve learned many times over the years to rely on the preponderance of the evidence, and not on any single indicator. The jobs numbers, themselves […]
Where’s The Recession, You Ask? Reprise
The narrative is that the “soft patch”, now so evident in U.S. data, is temporary, related to factors like weather, the government shut-down, and/or trade/tariffs. The Atlanta Fed, where GDP forecasts always seem to come out on the high side, put Q1’s real GDP growth at just +0.3%. And, the N.Y. Fed’s model says +0.9%. […]
No Recession in Sight; Just Volatility, End of Cycle Worries
As June began, market volatility re-emerged with both the stock and bond markets fluctuating wildly on a daily basis. The good news is that it looks like U.S. manufacturing got a bit stronger entering Q2, as did consumer spending. So, Q2’s U.S. GDP will be stronger than Q1’s. The May employment report, too, was stronger […]
The Italian Job Shouldn’t Have Been Such a Shock
The good news is that it looks like manufacturing got a bit stronger entering Q2, and consumer spending was slightly better, too. So, Q2’s U.S. GDP may actually be a tad stronger than Q1’s. But, the good news stops there, as the rest of the world, especially Europe, appears to have hit a wall, a […]
Before Political Correctness, We Called This “Stagflation”
“Those that cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” (George Santayana 1863-1952). This time, indeed, could be different. It certainly is in the realm of possibility. But, the odds are against it. One doesn’t get up on a particular morning and find an entry in the calendar on our smartphone, like “Cinco de […]
The Fed and the Phillips Curve
Deflation is the Order of the Day The Fed was established in December, 1913 after the Panic of 1907 (the latest in a series of financial panics dating back to the middle of the 19th century) put the economy into a severe recession via bank runs and subsequent bank failures. The Fed’s original purpose was […]