Employment Report – Not What Meets the Eye

Fed Near End of Rate Hikes The big news today was that payrolls increased by +261K. This caused markets to rally (shoot first, ask questions later). Interest rates moved up because the headline +261K may cause the Fed to be even more hawkish. Nevertheless, beneath the veneer, this was a very weak employment report. There […]

Headline Data Say the Economy is Solid

Markets Know Better Market reaction and direction were always going to be about the employment numbers. At first glance, the +315K from the BLS’ Payroll Survey looked “solid,” and equities rose more than 1% in Friday’s early going. But, as further analysis occurred, markets ended the day significantly in negative territory. Apparently, the details below […]

For Better/For Worse: Markets Show Extreme Volatility

Between late February and mid-Match, the world drastically changed.  And financial markets reacted by becoming much more volatile as unknowns emerged in the Brave New World.  Markets displayed about 60% more volatility in the week just ended (March 11) than they did in the February 18 week before the Russian invasion (referred to as R/U […]

Unexpected Events & Market Volatility

The Stage is Set for the Fed Despite our expectation that markets would become erratic, the volatility displayed on Thursday and Friday (February 24-25), especially in equities, was shocking, even to us!  The Nasdaq had a huge 7% swing from the intraday low to the close on Thursday, then proceeded up another 1.6% on Friday […]