Employment Numbers Mislead, the Coming Banking Crisis, and Why Inflation Will Moderate

For most of last week (ending April 5th), financial markets were worried about the upcoming employment report, and when markets fret, the indexes languish. But after Friday morning’s “strong” (on the surface) employment report, those markets breathed a sigh of relief and reversed a major portion of the week’s losses. Still, the week ended showing […]

Upon Further Review – The Labor Market Is Cooling

On Friday (January 5th), once again, the Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) number (+216K) handily beat the +175K consensus estimate for December. Immediately after the release, equity markets, via the S&P 500, spiked +0.75% (35 points) to 4,721 from 4,686, as did bond yields with the 10-Year Treasury rising 8 basis points to 4.08%. But, by day’s […]

Data Not Conducive to Wall Street’s “Soft-Landing” Scenario

One of the two major economic/market events that occurred last week (week of August 20) was the stellar performance of Nvidia (NVDA) which, unlike the retailers, beat on both top and bottom lines and whose stock price has soared from a 112 low last October to a high print of nearly 503 early on Friday […]

Why Interest Rates Are Falling

#*!? CRASH BAM @#$ Suddenly, markets (well, at least the bond market) now see falling interest rates in the short and intermediate term. The 10-Year U.S. T-Note fell from 1.47% on June 30 to close at 1.29% on Thursday July 7 (a big move in just four market sessions). Some of the rapid fall was due to […]

4/10/2019 Equity Market Appears to be Moving to the Sound of Its Own Drummer

There were several recent market moving reports, including some positive data on U.S. and Chinese manufacturing. But, the biggest news was the seemingly positive March employment data which sent equity markets up, as the initial take on the headline Establishment Survey (ES) data (+196k) fit the narrative that the soft economic patch is now passing […]

Barone: Housing doldrums a supply problem

One of the key indicators of U.S. economic health is housing – both the turnover of the existing housing stock and the construction of new units. Existing home sales, new home sales, and housing starts all peaked earlier this year. Given the health of the U.S. consumer, as vividly demonstrated in the employment and auto […]