The Risk of Recession is Rising; So is Market Risk

Recession: This is the hardest world for any business economist to pen, especially when the equity market is on a tear.  Nevertheless, that is the reality of a slow growth, deflationary world where not much negative must happen to push the 1% growth economy into negative territory.  Post-election, markets initially rose on the hopes of […]

The Topsy-Turvy Economy

The financial markets are hooked on easy money, low interest rates, and growth via debt issuance. Yet, it has become obvious to some market players, economists, and maybe even the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (the rate setting cabal), that current monetary policy is now hurting, not helping, the economy. Of course, monetary historians […]

Economic Review – Q1/16

At quarter’s end, the equity market had recovered all that it had lost between 12/31 and 2/11, plus about 1%.  Apparently, this was the swiftest recovery in any quarter since 1933.  While we were fairly certain that the downdraft was just a much needed correction, like you, we don’t care too much for the uncertainty […]

The Possibility of Negative Interest Rates on Your Deposits – Part I

The very concept of negative interest rates appears, at least at first blush, to be an oxymoron.   What rational entity would “loan” money and expect, under the contract, to get less back than loaned?  If you think “no one would,” think again!  In this two part narrative, I explain how this is possible, how it […]

Should investors worry QE3 has ended?

Originally published on RGJ.com’s website http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2014/11/16/robert-barone-investors-worry-qe-ended/19080941/ As October ended, the Fed announced an end to its controversial money printing policy, known as QE3 (the third round of quantitative easing). In QE3, the Fed purchased large quantities of U.S government securities. When the Fed purchases bonds, it creates new money in the form of bank reserves. […]

Fed policy and your retirement portfolio

Originally published in MarketWatch.com http://www.marketwatch.com/story/fed-policy-and-your-retirement-portfolio-2014-08-07 At the most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting, Chairwoman Janet Yellen reiterated that the economy is improving and deflation risks are disappearing. The Fed is planning on ending its QE, or quantitative easing, program in October and hasn’t signaled that it will begin raising rates before next summer in […]