The Wile E. Coyote Market/Economy
The Wile E. Coyote stock market has now looked down. Nothing but air! The “good news” data from the U.S. economy is all stimulus related. Without stimulus, Q3 GDP would have fallen double digits. The economy has yet to face the oncoming eviction crisis in the rental markets and foreclosure tsunami in the commercial real estate market. […]
Northern NV Will Remain Prosperous in a National Recession
My last column (Sunday, June 24th) was about the possibility of a recession near-term. On that same RGJ Business front page, the headline was “Reno Median Home Price Tops $350k” and “May Unit Sales Second Highest Recorded.” The two stories seem incongruent. But they aren’t. Impact of the Recession In the financial meltdown of the […]
The Trump Rally
For the third time in six months, markets reacted opposite to expectations. First, it was Brexit. Markets swooned after the unexpected vote. That lasted for two days before markets shook off the surprise and headed higher. Last month, when Trump won, the swoon lasted a whole 9 hours, and the tantrum ended just prior to […]
Is There a Social Agenda in Yellen’s Monetary Policy?
Recently released Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes (special strategy meeting) leaves me with the impression that there is not unanimity of thought among the participants that there is significant labor market slack. In many Fed districts, labor markets appear to be tight. Anecdotal evidence collected in these districts indicates that businesses are finding that […]
What’s Inflation? It Depends on the Definition
One of today’s economic myths is that the money that the Federal Reserve has created through its quantitative easing programs has not found its way into the money supply, and, as a result, no significant inflation has occurred. The theory is that QE has only resulted in bank reserve creation, but little new money. Money […]