As Signs of Recession Mount, the Fed Reiterates its Hawkish Path (Even Volcker Relented as the Recession Approached!)
The chart shows the continued downtrend in same store sales and, while the Seasonally Adjusted (SA) rise in April’s Retail Sales of +0.4% over the March number was cheered by the financial media, the Not Seasonally Adjusted (NSA) data showed a -2.4% fall vs. March and was the worst showing for any April in the […]
March Inflation: In Like a Lion; Out Like a Lamb
The CPI came out on Wednesday – it only rose +0.1% in March – that’s down from +0.4% in February and +0.5% in January. On a Y/Y basis, it fell from +6.0% in February and +6.4% in January to +5.0% (see table). CPI actually rose only +0.053% to the 3rd decimal (about half as much […]
Deflation is the Future
Most of the panic from the mid-March bank runs seems to have dissipated. But, we caution, most of the real fallout lies ahead as banks move into restructuring mode, which will only serve to deepen the Recession. There are still some “Nervous Nellies” on the Street when it comes to the Regional Banks. On Wednesday, […]
If You Think the Banking Issues Are One and Done, Think Again!
The banking chaos appears to have calmed somewhat this week, with no new banks targeted for deposit outflows. The chart shows that as of the close of business on Thursday, March 30, small and mid-sized bank stock prices have stopped falling. Note: they haven’t risen, either. If anyone thinks this was one-and-done and it’s over […]
Obtuse: The Fed & Treasury View of Banking Issues
Despite ongoing silent runs on the Regional and Community Banks, it appears that both Fed Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Yellen view the events of the recent past (SVB, Signature Bank, First Republic, Credit Suisse, and now Deutsche Bank) as one-off events and not symptomatic of stress in the world’s financial system. The dictionary defines […]
The Fed Wins – Rates Higher for Longer
The Implications This week, there were three major data releases – the Consumer Price Index (CPI), Retail Sales, and the Producer Price Index (PPI), all for January. The CPI met expectations, rising +0.5% for January. The Retail Sales number at +3% beat the consensus estimate of +1.9%, and PPI came in a little hot. Markets […]