Finally! The Fed Recognizes Inflation’s Retreat Financial Markets Celebrate

Despite the fact that markets were 90%+ certain that the Fed was done hiking, both the equity and fixed-income markets were surprised that the hawkishness, that had been so prevalent for the past 18 months, had completely disappeared. We were surprised, too! The dovish policy statement and Chair Powell’s demeanor complemented each other. We think […]

Why the Equity Markets Are Out of Touch

    Low Date of Low   12/31/22   6/30/23 Chg fr Low to 12/31 Chg fr Low to 6/30 Chg fr 12/31 to 6/30 S&P 500 3,577.03 10/12/22 3,839.50 4,450.38 +7.34% +24.41% +15.91% Nasdaq 10,321.39 10/14/22 10,466.48 13,787.92 +1.41% +33.59% +31.73% DJIA 28,725.51 9/30/22 33,147.25 34,407.60 +15.39% +19.78% +3.80% Russell 2000 1,655.88 9/26/22 1,761.25 […]

Despite Black Friday/Cyber Monday – Holiday Sales Will Likely Disappoint

It’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend. Consumers are looking for bargains. Despite what may be a better-than-expected start to the holiday season, for reasons discussed below, the indicators that measure the state of the U.S. consumer are mainly downbeat, and we think that overall, holiday sales will disappoint. So, while we might see an initial surge […]

Bubble Markets Display Bizarre Behavior

Right Before They Tumble Like the Dot.Com bubble of the late ‘90s, the typical signs of an approaching bubble bust were on full display in the equity markets last week (week ending January 29th).   GameStop (GME) and other failing or troubled companies (AMC, Blackberry, Nokia, Bed Bath) have become the darlings of the WallStreetBets (WSB) […]

The “Excess Savings” Hypothesis vs. Economic Deceleration

There is some speculation that because only a little more than half of the buildup in savings from the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits was spent through July, Q4 economic activity will continue to show recovery as the “savings” continues to be spent.  Call this the “Excess Savings” Hypothesis.   Unfortunately, the incoming data makes […]