Rising wages: Is Wal-Mart a precursor?
Originally published on Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/03/06/rising-wages-wal-mart-precursor/24537471/ For the past 18 months, the labor markets have been telling us to be bullish on the U.S. economy as the healing in that market precipitated economic strength. Those who could read those signals had a significant time advantage in the markets, as those signs emerged months […]
Weather or not, economy still improving
Originally published in the Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/02/20/weather-economy-still-improving/23742909/ In my last column, I talked about the negative media spin on January’s data, perhaps contributing to January’s equity market decline. In February, despite the fact that the equity markets have moved to new records, negative spin continues. I continue to see hand wringing over some […]
Financial media fixated on threat of deflation
Originally published on Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/02/06/financial-media-fixated-threat-deflation/23010819/ As a financial markets economist, my job is to survey the economic landscape and identify trends and issues that might have a significant impact on economic activity (and then to worry about what those trends and issues mean for client portfolios). Normally, over the intermediate time horizon, […]
More on Market Volatility
Despite the fact that the U.S. economy appears to be on solid ground, the equity markets appear confused and uncertain, and have exhibited volatility, including huge intraday point swings. In what follows, I will examine the sources of the uncertainty and try to shed light on whether or not to worry. 1. Global Economic […]
Stock prices down – should you worry?
Originally published on Reno Gazette’s website http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/01/07/robert-barone-stock-prices-worry/21424791/ Intellectually, we all know that the equity markets can be volatile. It is a question of whether or not we can control our emotions, especially during market sell-offs. As of last Tuesday, the S&P had fallen for five straight sessions, something we haven’t seen for a year. Some […]
Outlook for 2015: First Half U.S. Growth Accelerates
In 2013’s end of year missive, we commented that 2014 would be an up-beat year for the U.S. economy, and it looked like that could last through 2015. Now, as we near the last days of 2014, we see an even stronger underlying economy for 2015 and believe that it will last through 2016 […]