The Recession No One Will Discuss
As Equity Investors Rush to Exit Employment – Weaker than the Narrative The markets yawned at April’s headline Payroll Survey number (+428K) despite the media’s characterization of the report as “strong.” That’s because, upon further analysis, the most charitable description would be, in our view, “mixed.” In fact, “worrisome” would be our best characterization. Here’s […]
Money Explodes; Gold Glitters; The Recovery Slows
I often get asked why the price of gold is rising, and, as a follow on, will it continue. The price of gold has always had a significant correlation (80%) with the Fed’s balance sheet (i.e., the “money supply”), especially during periods of significant balance sheet expansion (money printing). The table shows the Y/Y change […]
A ‘W’ Recovery, Obstructed By Bankruptcies And Unemployment
The Recession’s ending isn’t the story – it is whether or not the Recovery lives up to its billing. In truth, the Recovery’s shape was never going to be a CAPITAL “V.” Like in the post-Great Depression period or the post-1918 pandemic period, consumer behavior will radically change. And, there is a lot of evidence that that has […]
On Reopening: We’ve Just Seen The Iceberg’s Tip
New Data Should Accelerate Re-Opening When the pandemic started, the only data available was the number of new cases, existing cases, and deaths. The original models, perhaps based on prior pandemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918, forecast significant deaths, up to as many as 2 million in the U.S., and, of course, mass infections. Based on […]
Slower Growth, Inflation, the Fed, and End of Cycle Indicators
The U.S. economy itself appears to be doing well, but we see many end of cycle signs, including less than 4% unemployment, rising interest rates, emerging consumer inflation, a strained housing market, slowing growth worldwide, and huge instability now developing in the emerging market space. Economy Still Healthy The 0.8% rise in retail spending in […]
“Normal,” It’s Not What You Think!
Most readers remember the pre-recession days of 4% GDP growth, interest rates at levels where savers had return choices worth pursuing (e.g., the 10 year T-Note at 4%), and workers could count on annual real wage growth. Today, many refer to this as “normal,” and there is a desire, if not a movement, to return […]