Despite Fed Hawkishness  Recent Inflation Data Give Markets Hope

The financial markets were “mixed” this week (ended June 14) with the tech sectors moving smartly ahead while the more traditional sectors lagged. The S&P 500 (+1.6%) and the Nasdaq (+3.0%) both closed higher. But the industrial stocks were flat to down as represented by the Dow Jones Industrials which were off -0.8% for the […]

Non-Farm Payrolls Mislead

The Labor Market is Weakening; Inflation is Falling The big economic news of the week was the +272K rise in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)(released on Friday, June 7). Expectations were for a number in the +180K range, so, a pretty big beat. Another data point upsetting markets (and likely the Fed) was the hottish average hourly […]

Employment Numbers Mislead, the Coming Banking Crisis, and Why Inflation Will Moderate

For most of last week (ending April 5th), financial markets were worried about the upcoming employment report, and when markets fret, the indexes languish. But after Friday morning’s “strong” (on the surface) employment report, those markets breathed a sigh of relief and reversed a major portion of the week’s losses. Still, the week ended showing […]

Fed’s Dilemma – Hotter Inflation & a Cooling Economy + Why Inflation is so Hateful

Inflation was the main concern of markets this week. On Tuesday (March 12th) Consumer Prices (CPI) came in slightly hot, but within market expectations. As a result, the financial markets took the report in stride and equities rallied. The problem was Thursday’s Producer Price Index (PPI), an index that is a leading indicator of future […]

Don’t be Fooled – The Macro-Economic Picture is Deteriorating

Once again, the Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) number, at +275K, was well above the consensus +200K estimate. But, that’s where the good news ended. The sister survey, the Household Survey (HS), reported a fall in the number of jobs of -184K. The HS is used to calculate the Unemployment Rate. Since the labor force did not […]