Growth Will Slow Faster Than Expected
So Says the Current Data The systemic “inflation” and “labor shortage” myths persist in the financial media despite data to the contrary: Layoffs remain at recessionary levels; Wage growth is slowing, not accelerating; Bond yields are falling (where’s the inflation?); Housing and auto buying intentions are at 40 year lows. Inflation The one-year inflation expectation […]
Spiking Rates: The Fed Doesn’t See Economy’s Deceleration
After trading in a narrow range (2.80%-3.10%) for much of Q2 and Q3, interest rates broke wildly to the upside as Q4 began. The real wonder was not the rise in rates, but why they stayed so benign for so long, especially in the face of record low unemployment and what seems to be a […]
New Market Highs: It’s Not the Economy (Stupid)!
It had been 210 days since the S&P 500 had made a new record high, but, on Friday, August 24th, after several days of struggle, the market finally broke to a new high (2874.69). The struggle actually began the prior Tuesday (August 21st). During that trading day, the S&P 500 actually pierced the old record […]
The Middle Class Continues to Fall Behind
February’s job growth was significantly stronger (+313,000 Establishment Survey) than market expectations (200,000). Strangely, though, the unemployment rate (U3) remained at 4.1% (Household Survey) for the fifth straight month. Why? Because a significant number of those who had previously stopped looking for work rejoined the labor force, perhaps indicating more labor force slack than the […]
Turning a Sow’s Ear into a Silk Purse
It wasn’t a big surprise that Wall Street advanced the narrative that the havoc wreaked by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma is actually a positive for the economy, now aided and abetted by the strangest employment report, perhaps of our lifetimes. (Conveniently ignored is Hurricane Maria, which completely wiped out Puerto Ricco’s economy, Hurricane Nate, and […]
At Recession’s Onset, There is No Bell, Bugle, or National Anthem
From my reading of the business media, there are few business economists who believe, like I do, that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is greater than 50%. A recession is generally viewed as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Looking forward, a recession isn’t inevitable, as there have […]