Employment Headline Hopeful – Ignore the Details at Your Peril
The big story of the week was the +263K jump in Nonfarm Payrolls, somewhat higher than the street estimate of 200K, now causing some pundits
Despite Black Friday/Cyber Monday – Holiday Sales Will Likely Disappoint
It’s Black Friday/Cyber Monday weekend. Consumers are looking for bargains. Despite what may be a better-than-expected start to the holiday season, for reasons discussed below,
Inflation is on the Wane
Why the Fed is Still So Hawkish The evidence on inflation is quite clear; it peaked in June and is now on the wane. The
Markets Now Recognize Approaching Disinflation
The CPI came in at +0.4% M/M for October, much better than the +0.6% consensus estimate, and the Y/Y number, a favorite of the Fed,
Employment Report – Not What Meets the Eye
Fed Near End of Rate Hikes The big news today was that payrolls increased by +261K. This caused markets to rally (shoot first, ask questions
Why Q3’s GDP Print Doesn’t Mean Recession Avoidance
The only saving grace of the GDP report was its headline +2.6%. As it turns out, Net Exports added 2.8 percentage points, and for the
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Employment Headline Hopeful – Ignore the Details at Your Peril
