Lies, Damn Lies, Payroll Data
The big spike in the Payroll data (+517K) was out of kilter with what has been occurring in the rest of the economy and other
GDP Beats – Sorry, No Soft Landing
And OPEC+ Threatens Dollar Reserve Currency Status There were two major economic announcements last week. The Q4/22 GDP, released by the BEA (Bureau of Economic
Markets to Fed: We’re Easing Whether You Like It or Not
The financial markets now recognize that the Recession has arrived, and given those markets, it’s time for the Fed to stop tightening, if not beginning
Inflation Melts: The Evidence and Implications
The CPI for December was released on January 12th (-0.1% M/M; +6.5% Y/Y). As it turns out, inflation was transitory after all – the time
Labor Market/Economy Weaker than Headline Jobs Number Suggests
The big story of the first week of the new year was always going to be about the December jobs number. The Wall Street consensus
Outlook: 2023 Recession Likely Deeper and Longer
Last year, our year-end outlook blog was titled: Outlook: 2022 Growth Will Likely Disappoint. And disappoint, it did. Real GDP was negative in Q1 and
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Lies, Damn Lies, Payroll Data
