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The Economy: Damaged Labor Markets; An Inflation Head Fake

On Friday, February 5, markets were set to rise no matter what the employment data showed.  If they beat to the upside, that would validate the reflation/pent-up demand narrative.  If they disappointed, well, that would simply mean more fiscal and monetary largesse (which financial markets love).  Either way, heads markets rise; tails, ditto. Labor Market Signals: Positive, Negative and Mixed As it turns out, there was validation for every viewpoint …Read More

The Recovery Will Be Weaker And It Will Take Longer

While markets were slightly higher on the week (see table), there was a clear rotation back toward technology after several weeks of a lull for that sector.  This is clearly shown by the week’s Nasdaq outperformance.   January 22 January 15 % Change DJIA 30,997 30,814 +0.6% Nasdaq 13,543 12,999 +4.2% S&P 500 3,841 3,768 +1.5% Markets continue to ignore economic reality and continue to be focused on a rosy …Read More

Bitcoin: A Primer What Investors Need to Know

Bitcoin; everyone is talking about it.  That’s what happens when the perceived value of something rises 2,000% in a year.  (The value of Bitcoin, in terms of dollars, was under $1,000 at the start of 2107, and, as of this writing (December 18, 2017), has been as high as $20,000. Bitcoin boasts of its “Blockchain” technology, where every transaction is transparent and can be tracked, but also of its privacy, …Read More