In 2024, Expect Lower Interest Rates & Lower Inflation

As we entered 2023, households were still flush with the cash from government handouts, the economy was healthy, the federal government was still running a significant deficit, and interest rates, while rising, had not yet been restrictive long enough to slow the economy. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% for […]

The Economy: Navigating Scylla & Charybdis

  In Greek mythology, Scylla and Charybdis were mythical sea monsters existing on the opposite sides of the Strait of Messina, between Sicily and the Italian mainland.  Scylla was a six headed sea monster; Charybdis a huge whirlpool.  Because they were so close together, any passing ship was threatened.  In Homer’s Odyssey, Odysseus passed close […]

The Recession Has Arrived, & with a Vengeance

For some time, I have outlined the growing softness in the U.S. and world economies.  Most of the recent data is pre-virus, and are generally meaningless.  The numbers we will get for March will be awful, but the worst is yet to come.  An example of March’s data is from the Philly Fed.  The print […]

Coronavirus: The Black Swan

  Black Swan taking off (Cygnus atratus) South Island, New Zealand (Photo by: VWPics/Universal Images … [+]VWPICS/UNIVERSAL IMAGES GROUP VIA GETTY IMAGES   The equity market finally had a reaction to the effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) last week, and it was significant with the S&P 500 falling 252 points (7.4%) from its record high close […]

Corona, Corona, Corona Bonds Really Do Have More Fun!

The equity market finally showed some sensitivity to the effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) last week with the S&P 500 falling 1.25% from its record high close on Valentine’s day for the holiday shortened week.  The leading issue which dominated every news cycle (except for the Democratic debate for a few hours) was Covid-19 and […]

The Potential Economic Impact Of The Reaction To The Coronavirus

Will You Catch Coronavirus? There is a minuscule chance of contracting the coronavirus if you live anywhere but in Hubei Province in China, and even less of a chance if you live in the U.S. The last time we had something like this (SARS), the public and business reaction wasn’t as extreme. It appears that social media […]