The “Boom” Is Off the Rose
The employment number was a shock to the “boom” economy narrative; it was the biggest consensus miss in history! The majority of forecasters, even those with scores of economists and huge budgets, simply got the “boom” narrative wrong. The Payroll Survey employment number was an “aberration” they hastily said. But the sister Household Survey tells […]
The “Economic Boom” Illusion
Upbeat data continues to make headlines. (The not-so-upbeat are relegated to the back pages.) This week it was the +6.4% spurt in real GDP. And, while the financial markets do feel a bit toppy, the S&P 500 still managed to eke out another record close on Thursday, April 29 (4211.47). “Help Wanted” signs continue to […]
U.S. Data Says “Boom:” Part Base Effect, Part Transient, Part Real
Prologue The much anticipated economic boom has finally arrived! The NY Fed Weekly Economic Index exploded to the upside in late March and early April (see chart above). Retail Sales were up an amazing +9.8% M/M in March! That number is not Y/Y. The Y/Y number was +27.7%, but was greatly influenced by depressed Retail […]