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Tag Archives: Boom

The “Boom” Is Off the Rose

The employment number was a shock to the “boom” economy narrative; it was the biggest consensus miss in history! The majority of forecasters, even those with scores of economists and huge budgets, simply got the “boom” narrative wrong.  The Payroll Survey employment number was an “aberration” they hastily said.  But the sister Household Survey tells the same story. While Initial Unemployment Claims (ICs) are falling, they are still at recessionary …Read More

The “Economic Boom” Illusion

Upbeat data continues to make headlines. (The not-so-upbeat are relegated to the back pages.)  This week it was the +6.4% spurt in real GDP.  And, while the financial markets do feel a bit toppy, the S&P 500 still managed to eke out another record close on Thursday, April 29 (4211.47).  “Help Wanted” signs continue to be ubiquitous.  Companies are raising wages just to attract applicants.  The prices of lumber and …Read More

U.S. Data Says “Boom:” Part Base Effect, Part Transient, Part Real

Prologue The much anticipated economic boom has finally arrived!  The NY Fed Weekly Economic Index exploded to the upside in late March and early April (see chart above).  Retail Sales were up an amazing +9.8% M/M in March!  That number is not Y/Y.  The Y/Y number was +27.7%, but was greatly influenced by depressed Retail Sales last March when the economy was beginning to shut down.  April’s Y/Y number will …Read More