Why the Equity Markets Are Out of Touch
Low Date of Low 12/31/22 6/30/23 Chg fr Low to 12/31 Chg fr Low to 6/30 Chg fr 12/31 to 6/30 S&P 500 3,577.03 10/12/22 3,839.50 4,450.38 +7.34% +24.41% +15.91% Nasdaq 10,321.39 10/14/22 10,466.48 13,787.92 +1.41% +33.59% +31.73% DJIA 28,725.51 9/30/22 33,147.25 34,407.60 +15.39% +19.78% +3.80% Russell 2000 1,655.88 9/26/22 1,761.25 […]
The Recovery Stalls; Fed Pledges “Lower for Longer;” Equity Markets Pause
With the Fed pledging to keep rates low even when (or if) inflation rises above its 2% target, it is hard to see why long-term Treasury yields (and those of other quality issuers) won’t move toward yields of similar debt in the world’s other industrial economies (i.e., Europe and Japan). The economic lull is now […]
The Economy: On a Sugar High With 28 Million Unemployed
Last week, interest rates moved slightly lower, with the 10-year T-Note falling about 7 basis points from 0.71% to 0.64%, a retracement of 37% toward the 0.51% August 4 low. Like its brethren, the 30-year T-Bond fell 10 basis points from 1.45% to 1.35%, a 38% retracement to the 1.19% low (also August 4). […]
Recessionary Impacts: ‘Down The Road’
When JPMorganChase reported earnings in mid-July, CEO Jamie Dimon quipped: “This is not a normal recession… the recessionary part of this you’re going to see down the road.” This observation is spot on. Dimon was observing that, while government had shut down much of the “nonessential” (i.e., 80%) economy, they also transferred $2.1 trillion to private households […]
A ‘W’ Recovery, Obstructed By Bankruptcies And Unemployment
The Recession’s ending isn’t the story – it is whether or not the Recovery lives up to its billing. In truth, the Recovery’s shape was never going to be a CAPITAL “V.” Like in the post-Great Depression period or the post-1918 pandemic period, consumer behavior will radically change. And, there is a lot of evidence that that has […]
The Recovery Begins – The Steep Part Of The “V”
The big market mover this week was Retail Sales, up 17.7% in May. Consensus estimates averaged 8%. A pop was expected; the magnitude wasn’t. Remember, the economy has never seen this kind of shutdown, or experienced such fiscal or monetary policies, so there is no experience or precedent upon which forecasts can be based. In this recovery, the consensus […]