The Economy Has ‘Recovered’ – Anemic Growth To Follow
The September jobs report was filled with cross-currents, some showing possible economic weakness, some showing strength. This makes the Fed’s job exceedingly difficult. Is the economy strengthening or weakening? What’s the correct monetary policy prescription? “Taper” asset purchases? Raise interest rates? Since September payrolls were so ambiguous, perhaps October’s (which will be available to the Fed prior to its November meeting) […]
No “Boom,” No Systemic Inflation Instead, a Return to “Normal”
In many parts of the country, no more masks! Businesses reopening. And, it sure does look like the impact of the latest stimulus checks (helicopter money) faded fast. Despite the fact that the IRS continues to send out billions more in stimulus funds as they process 2020 tax returns, April Retail Sales fell -0.7% M/M. […]
Employment and Inflation: The Double Whammy
As much as the big miss in employment was a shock on Friday May 7, the May 12 CPI data turned out to be a double whammy. April headline CPI came in at +0.8% M/M, while market consensus was +0.2%, another huge miss by market forecasters. Y/Y CPI was +4.2%, up significantly from March’s 2.6% […]
The “Boom” Is Off the Rose
The employment number was a shock to the “boom” economy narrative; it was the biggest consensus miss in history! The majority of forecasters, even those with scores of economists and huge budgets, simply got the “boom” narrative wrong. The Payroll Survey employment number was an “aberration” they hastily said. But the sister Household Survey tells […]
The “Economic Boom” Illusion
Upbeat data continues to make headlines. (The not-so-upbeat are relegated to the back pages.) This week it was the +6.4% spurt in real GDP. And, while the financial markets do feel a bit toppy, the S&P 500 still managed to eke out another record close on Thursday, April 29 (4211.47). “Help Wanted” signs continue to […]
When the Stimulus Tailwinds Fade
Prologue Big numbers are showing up in U.S. economic data, partly due to the low levels of economic activity a year ago, partly caused by the reopening, and partly caused by the generosity of Uncle Sam. We’ve had three helicopter money drops, two of them in 2021. The economy is rapidly reopening as seen from […]