Soft Employment, Inflation, Retail – Economic Implications
The employment reports last week (week ending September 1) had to dishearten the “soft-landing” crowd, as all the employment data showed emerging softness. It began with the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) on Tuesday (August 29). That survey showed job openings shrinking to 8.83 million in July. While that still appears to be […]
Why the Fed is Bluffing
As expected, the Fed “paused” after 10 straight rate hikes. They characterized this as a “skip,” not a “pause,” as the former implies the rate hiking regime is still in place while the latter has been construed to mean that the hiking cycle is over. The Fed does not want to convey that for fear […]
The Economy Has ‘Recovered’ – Anemic Growth To Follow
The September jobs report was filled with cross-currents, some showing possible economic weakness, some showing strength. This makes the Fed’s job exceedingly difficult. Is the economy strengthening or weakening? What’s the correct monetary policy prescription? “Taper” asset purchases? Raise interest rates? Since September payrolls were so ambiguous, perhaps October’s (which will be available to the Fed prior to its November meeting) […]
No “Boom,” No Systemic Inflation Instead, a Return to “Normal”
In many parts of the country, no more masks! Businesses reopening. And, it sure does look like the impact of the latest stimulus checks (helicopter money) faded fast. Despite the fact that the IRS continues to send out billions more in stimulus funds as they process 2020 tax returns, April Retail Sales fell -0.7% M/M. […]
Employment and Inflation: The Double Whammy
As much as the big miss in employment was a shock on Friday May 7, the May 12 CPI data turned out to be a double whammy. April headline CPI came in at +0.8% M/M, while market consensus was +0.2%, another huge miss by market forecasters. Y/Y CPI was +4.2%, up significantly from March’s 2.6% […]
The “Boom” Is Off the Rose
The employment number was a shock to the “boom” economy narrative; it was the biggest consensus miss in history! The majority of forecasters, even those with scores of economists and huge budgets, simply got the “boom” narrative wrong. The Payroll Survey employment number was an “aberration” they hastily said. But the sister Household Survey tells […]