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Tag Archives: equity market

We Don’t Live in “Normal” Times

The equity markets are in one of those rare moods where they continue to rise no matter the news, even when there are riots in the nation’s capitol complex, and when non-farm payrolls fall -140K.  Would you say this is “normal?” Regarding inflation expectations, interest rates rose rapidly along the Treasury yield curve with the 10-year T-Note yield rising from 0.93% (93basis points) from its close on January 4th to …Read More

Inflation Expectations Rise Even as the Economy Cools

It has now become clear, and mainstream, that the economy weakened significantly in November, and that such weakness will carry forward to year’s end, at a minimum.  The weakness occurred primarily in the services sector as the virus’ resurgence caused some governors to mandate new or additional service business restrictions. As a result, jobless claims have spiked, travel and hotel occupancy fell to even lower levels, and restaurant and other …Read More

Vaccine: That Pinhead of Light at Tunnel’s End

Pfizer’s vaccine announcement gave the equity market the vision and hope that some semblance of “normal” was closer than previously assumed; perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel. Reality is that, due both to the complex logistics of handling the Pfizer vaccine, the two shot inoculation process, and the voluntary system in America, that light at tunnel’s end is just a pinhead, with a long and treacherous journey …Read More

The Wile E. Coyote Market/Economy

The Wile E. Coyote stock market has now looked down. Nothing but air! The “good news” data from the U.S. economy is all stimulus related. Without stimulus, Q3 GDP would have fallen double digits. The economy has yet to face the oncoming eviction crisis in the rental markets and foreclosure tsunami in the commercial real estate market. No matter how the economic numbers are presented, 22+ million unemployed tells you all you …Read More

Weather or not, economy still improving

Originally published in the Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/02/20/weather-economy-still-improving/23742909/ In my last column, I talked about the negative media spin on January’s data, perhaps contributing to January’s equity market decline. In February, despite the fact that the equity markets have moved to new records, negative spin continues. I continue to see hand wringing over some month over month declines in individual pieces of data without any further analysis. One of …Read More

Better safe than sorry on investments

The old adage “Better safe than sorry” always returns to popularity after financial collapses, mainly because many people are “sorry.” Because it has been more than five years since the last financial calamity and it feels like the distant past, many investors are now ignoring this advice. So it appears apropos that we have this discussion now rather than moaning after the next market downdraft. Mind you, I am not …Read More