New Market Highs: It’s Not the Economy (Stupid)!
It had been 210 days since the S&P 500 had made a new record high, but, on Friday, August 24th, after several days of struggle, the market finally broke to a new high (2874.69). The struggle actually began the prior Tuesday (August 21st). During that trading day, the S&P 500 actually pierced the old record […]
Don’t be Fooled: Complacency is a Danger to Investors
The U.S. economy itself appears to be doing well, but we see many end of cycle signs, including less than 4% unemployment, rising interest rates, emerging consumer inflation, a strained housing market, slowing growth worldwide, and huge instability now developing in the emerging market space including Argentina, Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia, and Thailand. However, what scares […]
The Italian Job Shouldn’t Have Been Such a Shock
The good news is that it looks like manufacturing got a bit stronger entering Q2, and consumer spending was slightly better, too. So, Q2’s U.S. GDP may actually be a tad stronger than Q1’s. But, the good news stops there, as the rest of the world, especially Europe, appears to have hit a wall, a […]
2017 forecasts when Trump honeymoon ends
In this time of market exuberance and significant increases in almost every sentiment index, it is time to recognize that when reality returns, markets will correct. This coming year is going to begin with more uncertainty than is normally the case: The Trump fiscal agenda is huge, but so are the debt levels; and the Fed […]
The Topsy-Turvy Economy
The financial markets are hooked on easy money, low interest rates, and growth via debt issuance. Yet, it has become obvious to some market players, economists, and maybe even the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (the rate setting cabal), that current monetary policy is now hurting, not helping, the economy. Of course, monetary historians […]
Painted into a Corner A Review of the Economic Environment Entering Q4/16
While Q3 started out much better than the very slow economy of the first half of 2016, August’s data was very weak although there was some bounce in September. So, we enter Q4 with some serious concerns about the fragile state of the economy, where an outside shock or policy mistake could have serious consequences. […]