The ‘Insurance’ Cut Worry
Fed Chair Powell’s congressional testimony did little to allay market fears regarding the Fed’s underlying posture. Markets continue to be worried that, while the Fed is certain to cut the Fed Funds rate by 25 bps at July’s meeting, the rate reduction may turn out to be just an “insurance” cut, especially in light of […]
Markets: Time to Reflect on Risk, not Return
The week ended September 7th saw a pull-back from the record highs set in late August. Perhaps we witnessed the infamous “double top” (January 26th and August 29th). It is clear that financial markets have become riskier, and, perhaps, it is time for investors to assess the risks inherent in their portfolios versus the prospects […]
The Fed’s new bubble – Part 2
In part I of this two part series, I discussed the possible rush for the exits and market volatility in what I saw as a long overdue correction. The violence of the correction and the extremes of volatility that I worried about have now actually appeared. As I rewrite the introduction of this part II, conventional […]
Fed Likely to Put Economy at Risk
Market volatility finally showed up in the popular indexes (DJIA, S&P 500, NASDAQ). These were down two weeks in a row as of November 17 on rising volume (never a good sign when markets are falling), and they are no higher than they were a month earlier (October 20). The VIX, a measure of market […]
The Headlines Say Growth…
The headline numbers, for jobs and GDP, and most of the sentiment indexes, would lead one to conclude that the economy was robust and accelerating. Even the Fed agrees, as they upgraded their view of the economy to one now in “solid” growth mode. The reality is that much of the data was distorted by […]
2017 forecasts when Trump honeymoon ends
In this time of market exuberance and significant increases in almost every sentiment index, it is time to recognize that when reality returns, markets will correct. This coming year is going to begin with more uncertainty than is normally the case: The Trump fiscal agenda is huge, but so are the debt levels; and the Fed […]