Soft Employment, Inflation, Retail – Economic Implications
The employment reports last week (week ending September 1) had to dishearten the “soft-landing” crowd, as all the employment data showed emerging softness. It began with the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) on Tuesday (August 29). That survey showed job openings shrinking to 8.83 million in July. While that still appears to be […]
Why the Fed is Bluffing
As expected, the Fed “paused” after 10 straight rate hikes. They characterized this as a “skip,” not a “pause,” as the former implies the rate hiking regime is still in place while the latter has been construed to mean that the hiking cycle is over. The Fed does not want to convey that for fear […]
The Pandemic Caused Significant Economic Impacts; Not All Inflation Is Related
Over the last several blogs, we have opined that the pandemic hasn’t changed the economy’s potential growth path. The chart shows GDP growth rates beginning in the mid-1990s (with the Atlanta Fed’s +1.3% Q3/2021 forecast). The horizontal line shows a 2% growth level. Note that the left-hand side of the chart shows much higher growth than the right-hand […]
The Economy Has ‘Recovered’ – Anemic Growth To Follow
The September jobs report was filled with cross-currents, some showing possible economic weakness, some showing strength. This makes the Fed’s job exceedingly difficult. Is the economy strengthening or weakening? What’s the correct monetary policy prescription? “Taper” asset purchases? Raise interest rates? Since September payrolls were so ambiguous, perhaps October’s (which will be available to the Fed prior to its November meeting) […]
Fed Ignoring Market Rate Spikes – Basing Policy on “Actual Data”
The median of the Fed dot-plot (a summary of the individual member views on where Fed Funds will be over the next three years) indicated no changes in the Federal Funds Rate until 2024. But, because the Fed upgraded its economic (GDP) forecast to 6.5% from 4.2% for 2021, and a few more FOMC (Federal […]
Dysfunctional Credit Markets – Still Waiting on the Fed
As the week ended, U.S. credit markets appeared confused, if not outright dysfunctional. The 10-Year Treasury yield began February at 1.09% and reached an interim peak of 1.54% on February 25. Then it retreated to 1.42% as markets thought the rise had simply been overdone. But Fed Chair Powell’s refusal to assure financial markets regarding […]