The Economy is Softening; the Fed is Already Behind the Curve

As seen from the table, the equity markets were flat for the week. Perhaps markets have begun to pay attention to incoming economic data. Looking beyond the weekly data, it is quite clear from the year-to-date numbers that small cap stocks (Russell 2000) and industrials (DJIA) have not participated much in the market run-up. The […]

A Weakening Consumer and Other Signs of Economic Stress

Equity markets were subdued this week with the S&P500 and Nasdaq held at bay by a break in the upsurge in the price of Nvidia (NVDA) which, on Thursday and Friday (June 20 and 21) gave back about -6.6% in its price (but still up 155% year to date!). The table shows the results of […]

Despite Fed Hawkishness  Recent Inflation Data Give Markets Hope

The financial markets were “mixed” this week (ended June 14) with the tech sectors moving smartly ahead while the more traditional sectors lagged. The S&P 500 (+1.6%) and the Nasdaq (+3.0%) both closed higher. But the industrial stocks were flat to down as represented by the Dow Jones Industrials which were off -0.8% for the […]

Non-Farm Payrolls Mislead

The Labor Market is Weakening; Inflation is Falling The big economic news of the week was the +272K rise in Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP)(released on Friday, June 7). Expectations were for a number in the +180K range, so, a pretty big beat. Another data point upsetting markets (and likely the Fed) was the hottish average hourly […]

A Strapped Consumer = A Slowing Economy

Rampant CRE Foreclosures Portend Something More Sinister Financial markets closed the week mixed with the Nasdaq rising +1.4% and closing at a record high thanks to the huge Nvidia beat on both top and bottom lines. The S&P 500 was flat on the week (+0.3%) while the Dow Jones, with its 606-point (-1.5%) dive on […]

When “Bad News” Becomes “Good News”

While Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for April came in hotter than expected (+0.5%), markets took the bad data in stride, perhaps because the year/year change on the headline index was still only 2.2% (2.4% for the “core,” i.e., ex-food and energy). Another reason for the lack of market volatility from the release may have […]