Why the Fed is Bluffing
As expected, the Fed “paused” after 10 straight rate hikes. They characterized this as a “skip,” not a “pause,” as the former implies the rate hiking regime is still in place while the latter has been construed to mean that the hiking cycle is over. The Fed does not want to convey that for fear […]
On Reopening: We’ve Just Seen The Iceberg’s Tip
New Data Should Accelerate Re-Opening When the pandemic started, the only data available was the number of new cases, existing cases, and deaths. The original models, perhaps based on prior pandemics like the Spanish Flu of 1918, forecast significant deaths, up to as many as 2 million in the U.S., and, of course, mass infections. Based on […]
Coronavirus: The Black Swan
Black Swan taking off (Cygnus atratus) South Island, New Zealand (Photo by: VWPics/Universal Images … [+]VWPICS/UNIVERSAL IMAGES GROUP VIA GETTY IMAGES The equity market finally had a reaction to the effects of the coronavirus (Covid-19) last week, and it was significant with the S&P 500 falling 252 points (7.4%) from its record high close […]
Learning the basics of bonds
Originally published on Sierra Sun Tahoe Tribune http://www.tahoedailytribune.com/news/opinion/13034234-113/bonds-bond-yield-rate Fixed income investors today have had a difficult time finding yield with the record low interest rates we’ve seen. Bond investors can choose between using mutual funds or can purchase the individual bonds themselves, depending on what is more suitable for their own unique situation. If you […]
Are markets overvalued? Is there another bubble?
It is a mistake to think of the financial markets as a single entity. To answer the question as to whether the markets are overvalued or in a bubble, we have to examine each market separately. In the end, the only market that really appears to be in a bubble is the fixed income market. […]
In the new normal, risk is par for the portfolio
How much risk are you taking in your portfolio? Given the lack of return in the fixed income market and investors’ reach for yield, many are taking more risk than they should. It is traditional financial advice that the risk profile of funds set aside for retirement should vary inversely with one’s age, i.e., the […]