The Pandemic Caused Significant Economic Impacts; Not All Inflation Is Related
Over the last several blogs, we have opined that the pandemic hasn’t changed the economy’s potential growth path. The chart shows GDP growth rates beginning in the mid-1990s (with the Atlanta Fed’s +1.3% Q3/2021 forecast). The horizontal line shows a 2% growth level. Note that the left-hand side of the chart shows much higher growth than the right-hand […]
The Economy Has ‘Recovered’ – Anemic Growth To Follow
The September jobs report was filled with cross-currents, some showing possible economic weakness, some showing strength. This makes the Fed’s job exceedingly difficult. Is the economy strengthening or weakening? What’s the correct monetary policy prescription? “Taper” asset purchases? Raise interest rates? Since September payrolls were so ambiguous, perhaps October’s (which will be available to the Fed prior to its November meeting) […]
Inflation Is Fading; So Is The Economy; But Jobs Will Grow
The “inflation” story has now moved to page two, not because it isn’t still the financial media’s mantra, but the disaster of the Afghanistan exit has taken its place. We don’t think it will make its way back to page 1. The reason: the burst of economic activity, for the Q1 and Q2 economic reopenings, […]
The Reopening High – Long-Term Issues Quite Concerning
The big news of the week was always going to be the monthly BLS Employment Surveys. It was destined to move markets one way or the other, and since the +916K number from the Payroll Report (+1,072K if the +156K revision to February is included) significantly bested the 660K-675K consensus that was in the market, […]
Fed Ignoring Market Rate Spikes – Basing Policy on “Actual Data”
The median of the Fed dot-plot (a summary of the individual member views on where Fed Funds will be over the next three years) indicated no changes in the Federal Funds Rate until 2024. But, because the Fed upgraded its economic (GDP) forecast to 6.5% from 4.2% for 2021, and a few more FOMC (Federal […]
Despite Wall Street Hype, Inflation is Not Imminent
Retail sales rose a record 5.3% M/M in January after three months in a row of decline. No doubt the $600 checks from the late December “helicopter” money drop played a large role. The Atlanta Fed now says that their GDP model pegs the current quarter’s growth at +9.5% (Annual Rate (AR)). In addition, Industrial […]