Delta-Variant, Soft Data Bode Ill for Near-Term Growth
The markets waited all week for Fed Chair Powell to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s Annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Due to the Delta-variant, like many other business meetings, this one was held virtually. There was growing market concern that Powell would turn somewhat more hawkish, especially since some Regional Fed Presidents appear to have […]
No “Boom,” No Systemic Inflation Instead, a Return to “Normal”
In many parts of the country, no more masks! Businesses reopening. And, it sure does look like the impact of the latest stimulus checks (helicopter money) faded fast. Despite the fact that the IRS continues to send out billions more in stimulus funds as they process 2020 tax returns, April Retail Sales fell -0.7% M/M. […]
The “Economic Boom” Illusion
Upbeat data continues to make headlines. (The not-so-upbeat are relegated to the back pages.) This week it was the +6.4% spurt in real GDP. And, while the financial markets do feel a bit toppy, the S&P 500 still managed to eke out another record close on Thursday, April 29 (4211.47). “Help Wanted” signs continue to […]
When the Stimulus Tailwinds Fade
Prologue Big numbers are showing up in U.S. economic data, partly due to the low levels of economic activity a year ago, partly caused by the reopening, and partly caused by the generosity of Uncle Sam. We’ve had three helicopter money drops, two of them in 2021. The economy is rapidly reopening as seen from […]
Bubble Markets Display Bizarre Behavior
Right Before They Tumble Like the Dot.Com bubble of the late ‘90s, the typical signs of an approaching bubble bust were on full display in the equity markets last week (week ending January 29th). GameStop (GME) and other failing or troubled companies (AMC, Blackberry, Nokia, Bed Bath) have become the darlings of the WallStreetBets (WSB) […]
The Recovery Will Be Weaker And It Will Take Longer
While markets were slightly higher on the week (see table), there was a clear rotation back toward technology after several weeks of a lull for that sector. This is clearly shown by the week’s Nasdaq outperformance. January 22 January 15 % Change DJIA 30,997 30,814 +0.6% Nasdaq 13,543 12,999 +4.2% S&P 500 3,841 3,768 […]