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The Recovery Stalls; Fed Pledges “Lower for Longer;” Equity Markets Pause

With the Fed pledging to keep rates low even when (or if) inflation rises above its 2% target, it is hard to see why long-term Treasury yields (and those of other quality issuers) won’t move toward yields of similar debt in the world’s other industrial economies (i.e., Europe and Japan). The economic lull is now showing up in both the labor market (Initial Claims) and in retail sales, likely because …Read More

Outlook for 2015: First Half U.S. Growth Accelerates

            In 2013’s end of year missive, we commented that 2014 would be an up-beat year for the U.S. economy, and it looked like that could last through 2015. Now, as we near the last days of 2014, we see an even stronger underlying economy for 2015 and believe that it will last through 2016 barring any exogenous shocks. We have included a table of economic indicators which we will …Read More