Despite “Strong” Jobs Report, Recession Still Locked In

November’s jobs report surprised to the upside. Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) rose +199k, close to the +185k consensus view. But, it was the sister survey, the Household Survey (HS), that shocked the financial markets, as it rose +747k, more than doubly offsetting its -348k fall in October. So, it isn’t a surprise that the Unemployment Rate […]

The Recovery Stalls; Fed Pledges “Lower for Longer;” Equity Markets Pause

With the Fed pledging to keep rates low even when (or if) inflation rises above its 2% target, it is hard to see why long-term Treasury yields (and those of other quality issuers) won’t move toward yields of similar debt in the world’s other industrial economies (i.e., Europe and Japan). The economic lull is now […]

Outlook for 2015: First Half U.S. Growth Accelerates

            In 2013’s end of year missive, we commented that 2014 would be an up-beat year for the U.S. economy, and it looked like that could last through 2015. Now, as we near the last days of 2014, we see an even stronger underlying economy for 2015 and believe that it will last through 2016 […]