Soft Employment, Inflation, Retail – Economic Implications
The employment reports last week (week ending September 1) had to dishearten the “soft-landing” crowd, as all the employment data showed emerging softness. It began with the JOLTS (Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey) on Tuesday (August 29). That survey showed job openings shrinking to 8.83 million in July. While that still appears to be […]
Why the Equity Markets Are Out of Touch
Low Date of Low 12/31/22 6/30/23 Chg fr Low to 12/31 Chg fr Low to 6/30 Chg fr 12/31 to 6/30 S&P 500 3,577.03 10/12/22 3,839.50 4,450.38 +7.34% +24.41% +15.91% Nasdaq 10,321.39 10/14/22 10,466.48 13,787.92 +1.41% +33.59% +31.73% DJIA 28,725.51 9/30/22 33,147.25 34,407.60 +15.39% +19.78% +3.80% Russell 2000 1,655.88 9/26/22 1,761.25 […]
The Recession Will Bring Deflation
If there ever was a competition for a company that most reflected the state of the economy, FedEx would be in the final four. In Q1, its revenues fell -10%, and earnings were off -28%. On top of that, they guided even lower than the already reduced market estimates. Nevertheless, the media and Wall Street […]
For Nine Million, Unemployment Benefits Have Suddenly Ended
The Economic Implications One of the major Wall Street investment houses recently lowered their Q3 GDP growth rate from 6.5% to 2.9% (!!), apparently realizing that two-thirds of the quarter was history, that the data have all been weakening (like August auto sales), and that the fiscal stimulus (helicopter money) was now in the rear-view […]
Delta-Variant, Soft Data Bode Ill for Near-Term Growth
The markets waited all week for Fed Chair Powell to speak at the Kansas City Fed’s Annual Jackson Hole Symposium. Due to the Delta-variant, like many other business meetings, this one was held virtually. There was growing market concern that Powell would turn somewhat more hawkish, especially since some Regional Fed Presidents appear to have […]
The Payroll Numbers Won’t Prevent Economic Growth From Softening
Employment was the big story of the week with headline Payroll Employment rising +943K Seasonally Adjusted (SA). The consensus estimate was +870K, so, apparently, a big beat. But, looking beneath the surface reveals that this isn’t quite what, at first blush, it appears to be. Since the pandemic began, we have held the view that the Not […]