A Slower Economy, Lower Inflation The Odds of a June Rate Cut Are Significant

During the last week in March, there were several significant foreclosures (hundreds of millions of dollars per property). They included properties in SanFrancisco and Mountain View, CA, a large complex in Washingdon, D.C., and a medical office building (still under construction) in the southern part of Florida.   Leveraged loan delinquencies now exceed 6% (normal is […]

Despite Deteriorating Economics, Equity Markets at All-Time Highs

There were several important news events this week including the Fed’s January minutes. But this took a back seat to Nvidia’s blowout top and bottom-line numbers and its forward guidance which occurred after Wednesday’s (February 21st) market close. The equity market, which had been relatively flat on Tuesday and Wednesday, advanced more than 2% on […]

The Goldilocks Labor Report: “Just Right!”

It isn’t ever a good sign when markets become manic. August was quite volatile with five days out of 22 (23%) where the S&P 500 intra-day market swings exceeded 2%, and three days when the market closed down more than -2.5% from the prior day’s close. (We haven’t seen such price volatility since 2011!) While, so far, September […]

Where’s The Recession, You Ask? Reprise

The narrative is that the “soft patch”, now so evident in U.S. data, is temporary, related to factors like weather, the government shut-down, and/or trade/tariffs. The Atlanta Fed, where GDP forecasts always seem to come out on the high side, put Q1’s real GDP growth at just +0.3%. And, the N.Y. Fed’s model says +0.9%. […]