The Fed: “We Don’t Talk About Rate Cuts – No! No! No!”
The title of this blog was inspired by Disney’s Encanto, a story about a family living in a charmed villa in the mountains of Columbia. Cracks begin to appear in the foundation of the grand villa, and it is Bruno, an ostracized family member, who holds the key to stop the foundation from crumbling. The […]
The “Economic Boom” Illusion
Upbeat data continues to make headlines. (The not-so-upbeat are relegated to the back pages.) This week it was the +6.4% spurt in real GDP. And, while the financial markets do feel a bit toppy, the S&P 500 still managed to eke out another record close on Thursday, April 29 (4211.47). “Help Wanted” signs continue to […]
The Reopening High – Long-Term Issues Quite Concerning
The big news of the week was always going to be the monthly BLS Employment Surveys. It was destined to move markets one way or the other, and since the +916K number from the Payroll Report (+1,072K if the +156K revision to February is included) significantly bested the 660K-675K consensus that was in the market, […]
Fed Ignoring Market Rate Spikes – Basing Policy on “Actual Data”
The median of the Fed dot-plot (a summary of the individual member views on where Fed Funds will be over the next three years) indicated no changes in the Federal Funds Rate until 2024. But, because the Fed upgraded its economic (GDP) forecast to 6.5% from 4.2% for 2021, and a few more FOMC (Federal […]
Careful Mr. Powell; Higher Rates Will Kill the Recovery
Treasury yields rose again this week; blame this one on Fed Chairman Powell. In an interview at the Wall Street Journal’s Job Summit, he said that the Fed isn’t ready to stop the run-up in yields “until financial conditions tighten.” In so saying, he paved the way for those financial conditions to tighten as markets […]
The Rate Spike Will Damage the Recovery
Fed Intervention Needed There was quite a spike in interest rates the last week of February with the 10-Year T-Note spiking from a 1.36% level as of the close on Wednesday to as high as 1.60% intraday with a close of 1.55% on Thursday. Friday’s close was 1.45%. But, a lot of damage was done. […]