The New (Scary) Fed Steps Into New Territory
The pandemic’s second wave has appeared in Europe and now in the U.S. The Fed is more concerned about the economy and has taken the unprecedented step of telling Congress it will monetize whatever spending Congress desires. (Not your Father’s Fed!) The latest weekly unemployment data confirm the Fed’s worst fears: The Recovery has stalled! Overview No […]
The Topsy-Turvy Economy
The financial markets are hooked on easy money, low interest rates, and growth via debt issuance. Yet, it has become obvious to some market players, economists, and maybe even the Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (the rate setting cabal), that current monetary policy is now hurting, not helping, the economy. Of course, monetary historians […]
What ‘lower for longer’ means to yield-hungry investors
You’ve heard the expression, “We live in interesting times.” Substitute the words “uncertain,” “experimental,” or simply “scary” for “interesting,” and you will capture the feeling of many investors, especially those who have already retired or are approaching it. As I write, the media tells me that, by almost any standard measure, equity valuations are too […]
Reconciling a 1-percent economy with record market highs
The recovery from the Great Recession has been the most sluggish in post-WWII economic history. This is vividly displayed in the nation’s recent GDP report. The Commerce Department estimated that the economy grew at a snail’s pace over the last 3 quarters: 0.9% in Q4, 0.8% in Q1, and 1.2% in Q2. Yet, all of […]
When policies are anti-growth, sell the rallies and buy the dips
The equity markets are generally forward-looking. That’s why you have price movements that seem incompatible with the latest economic (backward-looking) data. The equity market today, as seen through the eyes of the S&P 500, has been flirting with all-time highs while the economic data indicate that the economy continues on feeble legs. So, just as […]
The Fed returns to the shadows
At the end of August, the Standard & Poor’s 500 reached another new milestone, closing above 2,000 for the first time ever. And even the NASDAQ, at nearly 4,600, is now within striking distance of 5,000, a mark it set almost 15 years ago. The fact that the stock market continues to rise in the […]