The Fed: “We Don’t Talk About Rate Cuts – No! No! No!”

The title of this blog was inspired by Disney’s Encanto, a story about a family living in a charmed villa in the mountains of Columbia. Cracks begin to appear in the foundation of the grand villa, and it is Bruno, an ostracized family member, who holds the key to stop the foundation from crumbling. The […]

As Inflation Fades and Incoming Data Disappoint The Fed Appears Intransigent

The headline CPI reading of no price inflation (0.0%) in October surprised the financial markets (but not us). It caused a bond market rally as yields (especially on the long end) fell. Then the PPI (Producer Price Index) showed up with a negative number for October (-0.5%), and this is generally a harbinger of what […]

Despite a Strong Payroll Report and a “Hot” September CPI Inflation Continues to Cool

The newly declared “war” in Israel adds to global economic uncertainty. The human tragedy is, of course, horrific, and we are saddened by it. There are, however, unknown economic implications, not only around the military responses, but also involving fiscal responses and the implication for major oil producers. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, […]

Economic Overview

Nearly all of the indicators for the U.S. are green (see table) The U.S. Labor Market Except for the Fed, which looks like it can’t tell the difference between structural and cyclical, the labor market looks strong The U3 unemployment rate fell to 5.9% in September, the lowest it has been since July ’08. Job […]