“Higher for Longer” Rates Have Risks – Especially for Banks

As expected, at its recently concluded March meeting, the Fed stood pat on interest rates. Of greater interest, the “dot-plot,” a picture of FOMC thinking about rates over the next two years, stayed at three cuts for 2024. Looking at the chart (the 2024 column), the median dot is 4.625%. That is a 75 basis […]

Despite Deteriorating Economics, Equity Markets at All-Time Highs

There were several important news events this week including the Fed’s January minutes. But this took a back seat to Nvidia’s blowout top and bottom-line numbers and its forward guidance which occurred after Wednesday’s (February 21st) market close. The equity market, which had been relatively flat on Tuesday and Wednesday, advanced more than 2% on […]

In 2024, Expect Lower Interest Rates & Lower Inflation

As we entered 2023, households were still flush with the cash from government handouts, the economy was healthy, the federal government was still running a significant deficit, and interest rates, while rising, had not yet been restrictive long enough to slow the economy. Real (inflation adjusted) GDP grew at an annualized rate of 3.0% for […]