Priced For More Than Perfection, Markets Have Dismissed Economic Reality
The holidays are upon us, and we wish our clients and friends health, peace and happiness. Recent income, output, and employment data have turned sour. We’ll see what that does to holiday shopping. The financial markets, especially equities, have looked past the valley (abyss), and the vaccine news has enhanced the view that “normal,” or at […]
The Economy: On the Other Side of the Abyss
The good news is that a vaccine is definitely coming. But getting to herd immunity is going to take more than a quarter or two, especially given the resistance of about half of the American population to getting the vaccine, at least early on. The economy is likely to remain soft until well after the […]
Vaccine: That Pinhead of Light at Tunnel’s End
Pfizer’s vaccine announcement gave the equity market the vision and hope that some semblance of “normal” was closer than previously assumed; perhaps a light at the end of the tunnel. Reality is that, due both to the complex logistics of handling the Pfizer vaccine, the two shot inoculation process, and the voluntary system in America, […]
The Economy: Through the Rear-View Mirror
The upbeat October employment report is likely showing the labor market through the rear-view mirror. The weekly state employment numbers, too, as reported in the mainstream business media, only tell half the story. The entire story includes an additional 9+ million people on Cares Act supplements; a program that is growing as state eligibility is […]
The Real Recession Is Just Starting
At month’s end, we are going to see the BLS announce a 30%+ bounce in real GDP (the Atlanta Fed’s forecast is now above 35%). Much of this is already priced into the equity market, so a positive or negative reaction will only occur if the reported number is significantly above or below the consensus view. In […]
The Economy: On a Sugar High With 28 Million Unemployed
Last week, interest rates moved slightly lower, with the 10-year T-Note falling about 7 basis points from 0.71% to 0.64%, a retracement of 37% toward the 0.51% August 4 low. Like its brethren, the 30-year T-Bond fell 10 basis points from 1.45% to 1.35%, a 38% retracement to the 1.19% low (also August 4). […]