When “Bad News” Becomes “Good News”

While Tuesday’s Producer Price Index (PPI) for April came in hotter than expected (+0.5%), markets took the bad data in stride, perhaps because the year/year change on the headline index was still only 2.2% (2.4% for the “core,” i.e., ex-food and energy). Another reason for the lack of market volatility from the release may have […]

As Inflation Recedes, Will the Fed Act in Time?

The CPI for December was slightly hotter than expected, up +0.3% from November (which in turn only rose +0.1%). The market expectation was for a +0.2% number. As a result, the headline CPI, which looks back 12 months, kicked up to 3.3% in December from November’s 3.1% read. The Core CPI (ex-food and energy), however, […]

Despite a Strong Payroll Report and a “Hot” September CPI Inflation Continues to Cool

The newly declared “war” in Israel adds to global economic uncertainty. The human tragedy is, of course, horrific, and we are saddened by it. There are, however, unknown economic implications, not only around the military responses, but also involving fiscal responses and the implication for major oil producers. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, […]

We Don’t Live in “Normal” Times

The equity markets are in one of those rare moods where they continue to rise no matter the news, even when there are riots in the nation’s capitol complex, and when non-farm payrolls fall -140K.  Would you say this is “normal?” Regarding inflation expectations, interest rates rose rapidly along the Treasury yield curve with the […]