U.S. Data Says “Boom:” Part Base Effect, Part Transient, Part Real
Prologue The much anticipated economic boom has finally arrived! The NY Fed Weekly Economic Index exploded to the upside in late March and early April (see chart above). Retail Sales were up an amazing +9.8% M/M in March! That number is not Y/Y. The Y/Y number was +27.7%, but was greatly influenced by depressed Retail […]
The “Excess Savings” Hypothesis vs. Economic Deceleration
There is some speculation that because only a little more than half of the buildup in savings from the stimulus checks and enhanced unemployment benefits was spent through July, Q4 economic activity will continue to show recovery as the “savings” continues to be spent. Call this the “Excess Savings” Hypothesis. Unfortunately, the incoming data makes […]
Lies, damned lies, and statistics
Today’s world thrives on instant gratification, tweets and sound bites. In-depth analysis rarely makes headlines, and by the time the in-depth analysis is available, the media have moved on to the next tweet sensation. And so, the business community was left with only a superficial reading of April’s retail sales numbers, possibly resulting in erroneous […]
Weather or not, economy still improving
Originally published in the Reno Gazette Journal’s website, http://www.rgj.com/story/money/business/2015/02/20/weather-economy-still-improving/23742909/ In my last column, I talked about the negative media spin on January’s data, perhaps contributing to January’s equity market decline. In February, despite the fact that the equity markets have moved to new records, negative spin continues. I continue to see hand wringing over some […]