U.S. Data Says “Boom:” Part Base Effect, Part Transient, Part Real
Prologue The much anticipated economic boom has finally arrived! The NY Fed Weekly Economic Index exploded to the upside in late March and early April (see chart above). Retail Sales were up an amazing +9.8% M/M in March! That number is not Y/Y. The Y/Y number was +27.7%, but was greatly influenced by depressed Retail […]
Bubble Markets Display Bizarre Behavior
Right Before They Tumble Like the Dot.Com bubble of the late ‘90s, the typical signs of an approaching bubble bust were on full display in the equity markets last week (week ending January 29th). GameStop (GME) and other failing or troubled companies (AMC, Blackberry, Nokia, Bed Bath) have become the darlings of the WallStreetBets (WSB) […]
“V” vs. “u” and the Flawed Inflation Narrative
The equity markets finally took a breather last week (ended January 15th), with the S&P 500 falling a mere 1.5%; that’s down from its record high a week earlier. Perhaps the really poor economic data played a role, but then again, equity markets like such poor data because it means more stimulus (Biden’s $1.9 trillion […]
The Inflation Scare
Interest rates backed up last week. The 30-year T-Bond, which was 1.19% on August 4, closed at 1.44% on Friday (August 14). The 10-year T-Note closed at 0.71%. It was 0.52% on August 4. The CPI showed up with a +0.6% M/M rise (7.4% annual rate) for July. That pushed the Y/Y rate to +1.0% […]