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Inflation Expectations Rise Even as the Economy Cools

It has now become clear, and mainstream, that the economy weakened significantly in November, and that such weakness will carry forward to year’s end, at a minimum.  The weakness occurred primarily in the services sector as the virus’ resurgence caused some governors to mandate new or additional service business restrictions. As a result, jobless claims have spiked, travel and hotel occupancy fell to even lower levels, and restaurant and other …Read More

Should bond investors be worried? This technician says yes; I say no.

I would disagree with the technical analyst in this video, the market believes that the ECB is about to ease interest rates (tensions in the Ukraine), as well as the Chinese government adding stimulus to its economy.  If one or both of these occur the Dollar becomes a safety haven driving Treasury yields down and prices up.  Keep in mind that the charts the technician sites in the video can’t …Read More