“V” vs. “u” and the Flawed Inflation Narrative
The equity markets finally took a breather last week (ended January 15th), with the S&P 500 falling a mere 1.5%; that’s down from its record high a week earlier. Perhaps the really poor economic data played a role, but then again, equity markets like such poor data because it means more stimulus (Biden’s $1.9 trillion […]
A ‘W’ Recovery, Obstructed By Bankruptcies And Unemployment
The Recession’s ending isn’t the story – it is whether or not the Recovery lives up to its billing. In truth, the Recovery’s shape was never going to be a CAPITAL “V.” Like in the post-Great Depression period or the post-1918 pandemic period, consumer behavior will radically change. And, there is a lot of evidence that that has […]
The Recovery: With Reversed State Openings, Expect A Flattening
The “Shape of the Recovery” graph that I drew a couple of months ago appears to be playing out almost exactly as forecasted (guessed!). The outlook for Q2, just ended, is now congregating around that -40% mark. We will see the first pass at Q2 GDP at month’s end. Stay tuned! April was the bottom of the Recession, […]
The Recovery Begins – The Steep Part Of The “V”
The big market mover this week was Retail Sales, up 17.7% in May. Consensus estimates averaged 8%. A pop was expected; the magnitude wasn’t. Remember, the economy has never seen this kind of shutdown, or experienced such fiscal or monetary policies, so there is no experience or precedent upon which forecasts can be based. In this recovery, the consensus […]
The Opposite: The Market Takes A Cue From Seinfeld
The Opposite In one of the 1990s Seinfeld episodes known as “The Opposite,” George Costanza decides to make decisions opposite of what his “normal” instincts would tell him to do. The results of his “opposite” actions were a beautiful girlfriend, a standing ovation, and a job with the N.Y. Yankees! Today’s equity market seems to be behaving […]