The Fed is Done Hiking – What Could Possibly Go Wrong?

Sometimes “bad news” is “good news.” That seemed to be the case on Friday when the jobs report came in weaker than expected. That, combined with the Fed’s continuing rate “pause” on Wednesday ignited the financial markets – both equities and bonds. Among the popular averages, the DJIA gained 5.1% on the week, the S&P […]

Despite a Strong Payroll Report and a “Hot” September CPI Inflation Continues to Cool

The newly declared “war” in Israel adds to global economic uncertainty. The human tragedy is, of course, horrific, and we are saddened by it. There are, however, unknown economic implications, not only around the military responses, but also involving fiscal responses and the implication for major oil producers. It’s too early to draw any conclusions, […]

New Market Highs: It’s Not the Economy (Stupid)!

It had been 210 days since the S&P 500 had made a new record high, but, on Friday, August 24th, after several days of struggle, the market finally broke to a new high (2874.69). The struggle actually began the prior Tuesday (August 21st). During that trading day, the S&P 500 actually pierced the old record […]

The Middle Class Continues to Fall Behind

February’s job growth was significantly stronger (+313,000 Establishment Survey) than market expectations (200,000).  Strangely, though, the unemployment rate (U3) remained at 4.1% (Household Survey) for the fifth straight month.  Why?  Because a significant number of those who had previously stopped looking for work rejoined the labor force, perhaps indicating more labor force slack than the […]

Turning a Sow’s Ear into a Silk Purse

It wasn’t a big surprise that Wall Street advanced the narrative that the havoc wreaked by Hurricanes Harvey and Irma is actually a positive for the economy, now aided and abetted by the strangest employment report, perhaps of our lifetimes. (Conveniently ignored is Hurricane Maria, which completely wiped out Puerto Ricco’s economy, Hurricane Nate, and […]

At Recession’s Onset, There is No Bell, Bugle, or National Anthem

From my reading of the business media, there are few business economists who believe, like I do, that the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is greater than 50%.  A recession is generally viewed as two consecutive quarters of negative real GDP growth. Looking forward, a recession isn’t inevitable, as there have […]